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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But the current race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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